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Tag Archives: Ehud Barak
Barak Backstabbed Bibi on Bombing?
Something caused Netanyahu to start talking about red lines instead of imminent attack. Did Barak flip-flop?
By Gil Ronen
First Publish: 9/10/2012, 1:27 PM
Pundits have noticed a toning down of the talk coming from Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu regarding an Iran attack. In the past week and a half, Netanyahu has been talking about the need for the West to set “red lines” that would constitute a casus belli if Iran crosses them. Previously, the messages coming from the Prime Minister were mostly ones signaling Israel’s resoluteness to attack Iran before the U.S elections.
What happened? The most popular theory in Israel’s punditsphere is that Defense Minister Ehud Barak suddenly bailed out of the proverbial ship heading for an attack on Iran. Barak began voicing his trust in the American resolve vis-à-vis Iranian nuclear weapons and said Israel and the U.S. see the matter eye-to-eye.
Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz, who is probably the minister closest to Netanyahu, went on Israel’s most highly rated newscast – the Channel 2 Friday evening weekly summary – and laid into Barak in an unusually harsh way. Steinitz raised the possibility that Barak is “stinging” Netanyahu as he stung political allies in the past.
Netanyahu faces an extremely hostile and unabashedly political press at home that militantly opposes an Iranian strike by Israel, as well as pressure by the U.S. and other nations, to refrain from such an attack. However, as long as he had Barak by his side on this matter, he had the political maneuvering room to carry out the attack despite these pressures.
Barak, a former leader of the Labor party, is perceived as a scion of the “Old Guard” leftist elite that ruled Israel until Likud took over, and still does rule Israel through the court system and other institutions, in the eyes of many. Therefore, having him onboard made it easier for Netanyahu to represent an Iran attack as a matter of survival, rather than a partisan political issue.
If Barak has bailed the ship of imminent attack, Netanyahu may feel that he has been left in the lurch without enough support for a strike he sees as vital for national survival – even though it is he, in the end, who can give orders for such an attack, with or without Barak.
There are many other possible explanations, however, for the toning down of the rhetoric from Netanyahu’s quarters.
One is that Netanyahu wants to lay low before he pounces on Iran. Barak’s statements could be part of a scheme intended to lull the enemy into complacency.
Another is that Netanyahu and Barak are more optimistic than they were regarding the possibility that Mitt Romney will replace Barack Obama at the White House. Israel may feel that once a second-term Obama administration is in place, the U.S. will be much more openly hostile to the Jewish state and may take active diplomatic or military measures to stymie a preemptive Israeli strike on Iran. If, however, Romney is elected, the chances that the U.S. would allow Israel to face Iran alone are much smaller.
Yet another possibility is that Israel has been given a commitment of some kind by Obama behind the scenes, and that this commitment convinces it that it will not have to face Iran alone.
Perhaps is that a military development on the ground or a secret technological advance are making Israel more confident that the Iranian challenge will be dealt with effectively before it can make a nuclear bomb.
All of the above are no more than informed speculations, however. It should be noted that the change in rhetoric is not a complete one, and that an Israeli attack on Iran is still possible at any time.
Number 2 US Military Chief in ‘Secret’ Talks with Barak
The vice chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff met Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak amid rising tensions over Iran’s nuclear program.
By Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
First Publish: 9/6/2012, 6:39 PM
Defense Minister Ehud Barak
Israel News photo: Flash 90
The vice chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral James Winnefeld, met Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak Thursday, one week after U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey was quoted alas saying that if Israel wants to attack Iran, “I don’t want to be complicit” in it.
The U.S. Defense Department and the Israeli Defense Ministry admitted that Barak and Winnefeld met on Thursday and even provided pictures – but no details, AFP reported.
“The Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is in Israel as part of a previously scheduled counterpart visit with Israeli Deputy Chief of the General Staff Major-General Yair Naveh,” Winnefeld’s office said in a statement out of Washington.
“While there, Admiral Winnefeld will participate in a series of discussions on mil-to-mil (military-to-military) cooperation and mutual defense issues impacting both Israel and the United States,” it said.
The meeting had been secret until Army Radio exposed it earlier on Thursday, reporting that Winnefeld was in the country at the invitation of his counterpart, Naveh.
It was not immediately clear when Winnefeld arrived, but he was expected to leave later on Thursday.
Army Radio said the visit had been kept under wraps because of political sensitivities between Israel and Washington over how to handle Tehran’s nuclear program, which both governments suspect is designed to build atomic weapons.
Next week, Lieutenant General Craig Franklin, currently the commander of the U.S. Third Air Force, reportedly will visit Israel in advance of a scaled-down joint military drill between the two armies next month.
The United States has cut approximately two-thirds the number of American troops who were supposed to participate, but officials maintain that the reduction has nothing to do with disagreements over how to respond to Iran’s disputed nuclear program.
Israeli leaders have been flooding the media the past months with proclamations that the “window of opportunity” to strike Iran is rapidly closing, while a large number of military, political and public figures have adopted the Obama administration view against a strike before next year, at the earliest.
Barak Looking at Closing Sinai Border During Hot Alerts
Barak looking at the possibility of a law which would allow security officials to close Israel’s border with the Sinai Peninsula.
By Elad Benari
First Publish: 9/7/2012, 2:16 AM
Defense Minister Ehud Barak has instructed officials in his ministry to examine the possibility of a new lawwhich would allow security officials to close Israel’s border with the Sinai Peninsula whenever there is an alert of a possible terror attack or kidnapping in the area.
Barak’s instructions were made following recent assessments made by the army and intelligence agencies.
Speaking during a Defense Ministry assessment on Thursday, Barak said, “In light of the changes in the situation in the Sinai and the risks to Israelis there, I am ordering to examine the possibility of allowing the competent authorities to close the border to Sinai when needed.”
He added, “Unfortunately, even when there are hot alerts about attacks or the possibility of kidnapping Israelis in Sinai, some Israelis ignore them and still go to the Peninsula. We need to act now and not wake up when an abduction or attack happen.”
The Sinai Peninsula has been in a state of anarchy since former Egyptian PresidentHosni Mubarak was deposed last year. Terror groups have taken advantage of the situation to carry out attacks from the region.
Egypt recently launched a crackdown on Sinai terrorism, in response to a terror attack near the border with Israel in early August, in which 16 Egyptian officers were killed.
Last month, the Counter-Terrorism Bureau issued a serious warning against travelling to the Sinai Peninsula, and called on Israelis vacationing in the area to leave immediately.
It was later reported that the warning was prompted by the release of an Al-Qaeda operative from a prison in Gaza and his return to Sinai.
Another warning issued by the Counter-Terrorism Bureau on Wednesday reiterated the travel warning to the Sinai and said that Israelis should avoid any visit to that area.
Barak: U.S. Ready to Face Iran on Every Level
The United States is ready to “face the challenge on every level” concerning Iran, says Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
By Elad Benari
First Publish: 9/7/2012, 12:11 AM
Defense Minister Ehud Barak
AFP/Pool/File
The United States is ready to “face the challenge on every level” concerning Iran’s nuclear drive, Defense Minister Ehud Barak claimed on Thursday after meeting with the deputy U.S. military chief.
“We face a common challenge but the clock is ticking at a different pace for each of us,” AFP quoted Barak as having said after meeting the vice chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral James Winnefeld, for talks on Iran.
“We also have our differences; Israel keeps its sovereign right to act independently, and the U.S. understands this. However, there is no doubt about the U.S. readiness to face the challenge on every level,” Barak said, according to a statement from his ministry.
Earlier, a statement from Winnefeld’s office said he was in Israel as part of a previously scheduled counterpart visit with IDF deputy chief of staff, Major General Yair Naveh.
“While there, Admiral Winnefeld will participate in a series of discussions on mil-to-mil (military-to-military) cooperation and mutual defense issues impacting both Israel and the United States,” the statement said.
Barak, in the statement released from his office, said talks with Winnefeld focused on “the situation in the region, and of course about the Iran issue.”
He reiterated that “only Israel will take decisions regarding its future and security” in a reference to what plans it may have regarding Iran.
Barak added, “However, the U.S. is our most important ally. The intelligence cooperation and the military support are deep and exceptional in scope. I am sure that it will stay this way in any scenario that might happen in the future.”
The meeting had been secret until Army Radio exposed it earlier on Thursday, reporting that Winnefeld was in the country at the invitation of his counterpart, Naveh.
It was not immediately clear when Winnefeld arrived, but he was expected to leave later on Thursday.
Army Radio said the visit had been kept under wraps because of political sensitivities between Israel and Washington over how to handle Tehran’s nuclear program, which both governments suspect is designed to build atomic weapons.
U.S.-Israel relations have been strained over an attack on Iran, which Israel seems to be encouraging but which the U.S. is rejecting for the time being.
Last week, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey,appeared to warn Israel that it should not expect U.S. assistance if it chooses to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
Dempsey said an Israeli attack would “clearly delay but probably not destroy Iran’s nuclear program” and added, “I don’t want to be complicit if they [Israel] choose to do it.”
Channel 10 News reported on Wednesday that preparations are currently underwayfor a meeting between Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Barack Obama.
According to the report, Netanyahu and Obama will meet at the White House a day after Yom Kippur, when Netanyahu arrives in the U.S. to speak at the United Nations General Assembly.
It is believed that the meeting between Netanyahu and Obama will lead to Israel agreeing to postpone an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, for a period of several months to half a year.
Earlier this week Netanyahu said that the international community must set a “clear red line” in order to avoid a war over Iran’s controversial nuclear program.
“This is a brutal regime that is racing ahead with its nuclear program because it doesn’t see a clear red line from the international community,” Netanyahu said at a meeting with Israeli and U.S. servicemen wounded in conflict.
He added, “And it doesn’t see the necessary resolve and determination from theinternational community. The greater the resolve and the clearer the red line, the less likely we’ll have conflict.”
Military Muppet: TV character urges Israelis to prepare for strike on Iran
A photo shows the cover of a new, emergency pamphlet being distributed nationwide by Israeli Army‘s Home Front Command August 27, 2012 (Reuters/Israeli Defence Force)
TRENDS:Israel vs Iran
TAGS: Conflict, Military, Nuclear, Politics, Iran,Netanyahu, Israel, War
A new emergency pamphlet in Israel instructs residents to prepare for the worst if Tel Aviv conducts a military strike on Iran. But the face on the brochure isn’t the country’s President or Prime Minister – it’s a Muppet.
The cover of the 15-page leaflet pictures a smiling Moishe Oofnik, the Israeli Muppet version of Oscar the Grouch. He’s the resident pessimist on Rechov Sumsum, Israel’s co-production of the long-running American children’s program ‘Sesame Street.’
Muppets on the popular show are known for teaching children numbers and the alphabet, but Moishe Oofnik has taken on a different job with this pamphlet – instructing Israelis how to react if their nation’s government launches a war against Iran.
The booklet, issued by the Israeli military, says that once air raid sirens sound, residents of the Jewish state would have between 30 seconds and three minutes to find cover before rockets hit their area. The brochure, which is being distributed across the country, also teaches Israelis how to prepare a safe room or shelter for emergency situations.
The furry Muppet puts a happy face on the warnings, though the issue is anything but lighthearted: Israeli ministers have estimated that up to 500 civilians could die in the conflict that would follow a strike on Iran.
The pamphlet comes in the wake of recent remarks by Israeli officials suggesting that Tel Aviv may soon launch a unilateral attack on Tehran’s nuclear program. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak reportedly favor a strike on Iran. Public statements and anonymous quotes to Israeli media in the past week have raised speculation that Israel may soon attack Iran.
The bellicose rhetoric comes over Israeli and Western allegations that Iran’s nuclear program is a cover for the development of atomic weapons, while Tehran claims the facilities are for civilian purposes.
Less than two weeks ago, Netanyahu announced that negotiations with Iran had “failed,” and claimed that Israel will attack Iran in the near future, with or without US consent.
The Israeli Defense Minister also supports military action against Iran: “Barak is advocating for action and the defense establishment is investing billions to prepare for an Israeli military operation,” an Israeli official told Ynet News.
But the ambition to set back Iran’s nuclear program could come at a high cost to Israel’s citizens, causing many Israelis to protest a potential attack. The country’s president also recently spoke out against a unilateral strike against Iran.
“It’s clear to us that we can’t do it alone. We can only delay [Iran's progress]. Thus it’s clear to us that we need to go together with America,” Shimon Peres told Israel’s Channel Two television.
Iran has promised to retaliate against in Israeli attack in what could lead to a wider regional war among several different forces. Tel Aviv fears that Tehran could induce its Hezbollah guerrilla allies in Lebanon and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip to launch rocket strikes against Israel if Iran were attacked.
As the Israeli government prepares for the worst, it is urging residents to have a “family talk” about preparing for a national emergency. But it’s not just pamphlets that indicate that an attack may be imminent – Israel increased the distribution of gas masks and other protective gear to the public several weeks ago.
“There are always innovations the public needs to know about, it doesn’t mean anything is going to happen today, tomorrow or the next day,” an Israeli military source told Reuters.
Israel Attack on Iran Runs Risk of Massive Missile Retaliation
If Israel attacks Iran, the Israeli heartland could face retaliation from more than 10,000 missiles based in Iran, Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, according to Uzi Rubin, the founder and first director of Israel’s Missile Defense Organization.
Rubin, speaking Thursday before the Middle East Studies department of the US Marine Corps University in Quantico, Va., said it was “above his pay grade” to say whether or not it would be wise for Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
However, in a detailed presentation of the threats Israel faces and in an interview afterward with Al-Monitor, Rubin made his reservations about the repercussions of such an attack clear.
Israel’s strategic circumstances have changed dramatically in the last two or three decades, Rubin said, from a time when the main threat came from other nation state’s tanks and airplanes.
Recognizing that they could not compete with Israel in these areas, he said, governments in Iran and Syria and the non-state actors Hezbollah and Hamas have emphasized “indirect fire” from “standoff weapons” — rockets and missiles of ever increasing range, power and accuracy.
Rubin said at least 13,000 such weapons are now in the hands of Israel’s adversaries that can reach Israel’s most populated areas, including 1,500 that “can hit greater Tel Aviv.” Hezbollah, which in a 2006 war with Israel confined its strikes to Israel’s north, now “can cover all of Israel down to [its southernmost city, the Red Sea port of] Eilat,” Rubin said. Even Hamas has rockets that can reach Tel Aviv from Gaza, he said.
Iran, he said, has several missile systems that could target Israel and has started deploying missiles in hardened silos that would be difficult to take out pre-emptively.
Rubin — known as the father of Israel’s Arrow missile defense system — expressed pride at Israel’s defensive advances, including the Iron Dome system which he said had destroyed more than 100 medium and light rockets fired from Gaza since it became operational last year. He acknowledged, however, that Israel “can’t provide 100 percent defense.”
“In Israel, no place is safe,” he said. “Israel’s main assets can be taken out. This is the new reality.”
Outgoing Israeli Home Defense Minister Matan Vilnai told reporters Wednesday (Aug. 15) that an Israeli attack on Iran was likely to trigger a monthlong confrontation that would result in 500 Israelis killed from missile and rocket strikes. Defense Minister Ehud Barak has used similar figures and Israelis have been urged to buy gas masks and review bomb shelter locations.
Rubin said Israel’s adversaries would seek to overcome Israeli defenses by firing numerous missiles simultaneously in the hope that some could penetrate the shield.
Most of the missiles that could hit Israel are currently based in Syria, he said. One intelligence benefit from the Syrian civil war, he said, is that the regime – which had been secretive about its arsenal — has been conducting televised missile exercises in recent months in an effort to deter NATO intervention on the side of the Syrian opposition. This has enabled Israel to get a better sense of what Syria possesses.
While Rubin, a former brigadier general in the Israeli Air Force, tried to sidestep questions about the wisdom of an Iran attack, he acknowledged to Al-Monitor after his speech that “you read in our papers that most of our military leaders are against an attack.”
He suggested that Israel’s “political leadership” — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak — are “posturing” in their frequent public statements warning that Israel would have to go it alone against Iran rather than allow that country’s nuclear program to reach a “zone of immunity” from Israeli attack.
Many analysts have suggested that Netanyahu and Barak are trying to pressure President Obama to commit to attacking Iran’s nuclear program in the near future.
“I still remain convinced that the Israelis don’t have a play,” Kenneth Katzman, an Iran analyst at the US Congressional Research Service, told Al-Monitor. “They can’t do enough damage. The game is to get us to do it.”
Rubin said retaliation from Iran and Israel’s other adversaries would depend on how successful Israel’s offensive would be. Ironically, he suggested that the Israeli homeland might be better off at least in the short term if an attack on Iran failed to do significant damage to the Iranian nuclear program.
If little damage is done to the nuclear facilities, “the Iranians will celebrate a victory and perhaps nothing else will happen,” he said. Israel could face the strongest retaliation if it succeeded in heavily damaging the Iranian program without suffering major Israeli military losses.
“It’s very scenario-dependent,” he said. “If it will humiliate them, then there’ll be a violent reaction. If it will humiliate us, this will be the reaction itself.”
Rubin, who retired from the military in 2002 and now heads his own consulting company, did not minimize the threat of a nuclear Iran.
“Nobody can be indifferent to the Iranian nuclear threat; it’s very bad news,” he told Al-Monitor. “But it’s a choice between something bad and worse … Which is a worse solution — this is a matter of judgment.”
While suggesting that Netanyahu might be bluffing to get maximum concessions from the United States, Rubin acknowledged that “the leadership that talks about it binds itself into a situation. So I’m not saying the chances of an attack are nil.”
Rubin compared the decision facing Israeli leaders to that confronting Israel before the 1967 Six-Day War. Israel ultimately decided to strike first and wound up capturing large swaths of territory previously controlled by Egypt, Jordan and Syria.
“In the Six-Day War, there was no escape from the feeling of doom,” he said. “Unless we strike, we are doomed … I remember going back with my unit to the town of Ramla, people throwing fruit and cake at us and crying. And they were crying because we stayed alive, not because we won. Because we thought we are going to die. That was clear that we had to do the best we could in order to stay alive.”
Now, he suggested, the threat is not of such urgency that it requires drastic action – and the Israeli public does not want to risk their comfortable present for an uncertain future.
“[Now] people enjoy life in Israel,” Rubin said. “I’m coming back home and I have tickets for Cirque de Soleil with all my grandchildren and I’m going to enjoy life,” Rubin said. “That’s it.”
US-Israeli deal on Iran? No Israeli strike now if Obama pledged a spring attack
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 18, 2012, 2:37 PM (GMT+02:00)
Netanyahu and Barak hold the key to Iran attack.
The White House this week scrambled to reconnect with Jerusalem after the Obama administration was persuaded that Israel was serious about conducting a fall military operation against Iran’s nuclear program before the Nov. 6 US presidential election – notwithstanding the heavy opposition guns firing against it at home and from Washington. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, assisted by their newly-appointed Home Front Defense Minister, were seen deep in practical preparations for this operation and its repercussions, as well an outbreak of hostilities with Syria and Hizballah.
The White House accordingly got in touch with Netanyahu’s office to find out what America must do to convince Israel to back off.
Wednesday, Aug.15, DEBKAfile revealed exclusively that the Obama and Netanyahu were discussing a one-on-one encounter on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session opening in New York on Sept. 18 in order to resume their military and strategic dialog on the Iranian issue broken off by their polar differences.
DEBKAfile now learns that those discussions have moved forward. Handled by National Security Adviser Tom Donilon for the US president and senior adviser Ron Dermer for the prime minister, they focus essentially on a four-point plan embodying Israel’s requirements for delaying an attack.
1. President Obama will formally inform the two houses of congress in writing that he plans to use military force to prevent Iran from arming itself with a nuclear weapon. He will request their endorsement. Aside from this step’s powerful deterrent weight for persuading Iran’s leaders to give up their pursuit of a nuclear bomb, it would also give the US president the freedom to go to war with Iran when he sees fit, without have to seek congressional endorsement.
2. To underscore his commitment, President Obama would pay a visit to Israel in the weeks leading up to election-day and deliver a speech to the Knesset solemnly pledging to use American military force against the Islamic Republic if Tehran still refuses to give up its nuclear weapon program. He will repeat that pledge before various other public forums.
3, In the coming months up until Spring 2013, the United States will upgrade Israel’s military, intelligence and technological capabilities so that if President Obama (whether he is reelected or replaced by Mitt Romney) decides to back out of this commitment, Israel will by then be in command of the resources necessary for inflicting mortal damage on Iran’s nuclear program with a unilateral strike.
DEBKAfile’s military sources note that an influx of these top-grade US military resources would bridge the gap between American and Israeli ticking clocks for an attack on Iran, and dispel the fear in Jerusalem that delay would give Iran time to bury its key facilities in “zones of immunity” – outside Israel’s reach for serious damage with its present capabilities.
4. If points 1-3 can be covered – and Netanyahu and Barak are convinced the US really means to strike Iran next spring – our Washington and Jerusalem sources report that Jerusalem may be coming around to agreeing to hold back a lone Israeli attack this autumn.
Those sources report that President Obama has not rejected the plan. Donilon was told to keep on talking to Netanyahu and Barak.
Barak: A Nuclear Iran Will be Infinitely More Dangerous
Defense Minister Ehud Barak in the Knesset: There are risks in attacking Iran, but it will be infinitely more risky if it has nukes.
By Elad Benari
First Publish: 8/17/2012, 5:46 AM
Defense Minister Ehud Barak
Israel news photo: Flash 90
Defense Minister Ehud Barak explained on Thursday why it is important that the issue of Iran’s nuclear program be resolved as soon as possible.
Barak spoke at a Knesset discussion during which Avi Dichter was sworn in as Home Front Defense Minister. During the meeting, criticism was leveled at Barak and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu by members of the opposition for the way they are dealing with the Iranian issue.
Barak, however, made it clear that dealing with a nuclear Iran would be infinitely more dangerous and more expensive.
“There are risks in the situation today, it’s not simple, not risk-free,” said Barak and stressed that on the other hand, “It’s infinitely more dangerous, complicated, complex and costly in human lives and resources to deal with a nuclear Iran in the future.”
He clarified that the government will be the body that will decide on the matter. “The prime minister and defense minister and foreign minister have authority, we have the forum of nine senior ministers, there is a cabinet and the decision, when the time comes, will be made by the Israeli government. That is how it always was and that is how it should be. Not groups of citizens and not even editorials [will make the decision].”
Barak added, “I have been sitting for many years in government meetings. I say to you, members of the Knesset and the public, there is no issue – neither peace nor war – that has been discussed at this depth, in such detail, time after time in government, inside closed rooms, in an open and responsive manner and in a more transparent manner than ever before. That does not mean that there is no controversy, but the subject is being discussed.”
There has been continued speculation that Israel is close to striking in Iran. Some have speculated that such an attack by Israel could likely occur in September or October.
Israel’s former national security adviser, Uzi Dayan, told The New York Times on Wednesday that Netanyahu and Barak have not yet decided to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and could be dissuaded from a strike, if President Barack Obama approved stricter sanctions and publicly confirmed his willingness to use military force.
Prior to Barak’s remarks, Kadima chairman Shaul Mofaz attacked Netanyahu over the reports about a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“Mr. Prime Minister, you are creating panic,” he said. “You are trying to scare us and horrify us. And the truth is – we really are afraid. We are afraid of your lack of judgment, we are afraid that you are being led rather than leading, we are afraid that you are implementing a dangerous and irresponsible policy.”
New US report on Iran nukes ‘makes issue urgent’
The Islamic republic’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2nd L) and Foreign Minister Ali AKbar Salehi (C) listening to an expert during a tour of Tehran’s research reactor centre on February 15, 2012.(AFP Photo / Iranian Presidency)
TRENDS:Israel vs IranIran tension
TAGS: Arms, Conflict, Military, Nuclear, Iran, USA,Israel, Sanctions
Time is running out to contain the Iranian threat, Israel’s defense minister has warned. Israel is raising the alarm following a new US National Intelligence Estimate which says Tehran has made significant strides towards joining the nuclear club.
US President Barrack Obama was supposed to have received the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) weeks ago, but it was delayed in order to include “new and alarming intelligence information” concerning the military nature of Iran’s nuclear program, Haaretz reports. The report’s conclusions are said to converge with those of the Israeli intelligence community.
The NIE reportedly concluded that Iranian efforts to develop a nuclear capability had made considerably greater progress than initially thought.
Israel’s defense minister, Ehud Barak, said he was aware of an unspecified intelligence report circulating in Washington whose conclusions converged with Israel’s own assessment of Iran’s nuclear intentions.
There probably really is such an American intelligence report – I don’t know if it is an NIE one – making its way around senior offices (in Washington),” Reuters cites Barak as telling Israel Radio.
“As far as we know it brings the American assessment much closer to ours … it makes the Iranian issue even more urgent and (shows it is) less clear and certain that we will know everything in time about their steady progress toward military nuclear capability,” he continued.
When asked about a comment made last week by former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy, who said “if I were an Iranian, I would be very worried in the next twelve weeks,” Barak did not flinch.
“There is some basis to what Halevy said.” We will soon have to make some difficult decisions”, he warned.
“All the options are still on the table, and when we say this, we mean it,” he continued.
White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said he was “not going to comment on intelligence matters” after being questioned about the NIE findings.
Israel has been steadfast in its assertion that it will launch a pre-emptive military strike against Iran’s nuclear program. While the United States maintains it will do everything within its power to stop the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear weapon, Washington has urged Israel to give the sanctions regime against Iran more time to take effect.
However, signs that Israel is losing patience became apparent during a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the US defense secretary, Leon Panetta, last week.
“Right now the Iranian regime believes that the international community does not have the will to stop its nuclear program,” he said “This must change, and it must change quickly because time to resolve this issue peacefully is running out.”
“Neither sanctions nor diplomacy has yet had any impact on Iran’s nuclear weapons program,” Netanyahu continued.
While Panetta maintained that the US would keep all options on the table, whether the latest NIE report indicates the US is leaning towards a military solution remains to be seen.
The NIE is an “estimative” product compiled by 16 US intelligence agencies intended to inform the US president and other top government officials on the likely course of future events.
A 2007 NIE report on Iran actually derailed Israeli efforts to rally the international community against Tehran after it found the country had suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and had made no efforts to bring it back online.
However, the latest NIE findings could mirror a US military source who claimed the US and Israel had already drawn up war plans against Iran.
