Israel advised to brace for Syrian missile attack – conventional or chemical

DEBKAfile Special Report July 14, 2012, 2:36 PM (GMT+02:00)

Syrian missiles capable of carrying chemical weapons

As the already unthinkable pace of slaughter in Syria accelerates further, Western military sources warned Saturday, July 14, that not only Israel, but additional strategic targets in Middle East lands deemed enemies by Bashar Assad should prepare for him to launch surface-to-surface missile attacks. The assaults would start out with conventional warheads, but as the regime continued to be hammered, the beleaguered ruler might well arm the next round of missiles from his huge stockpile of mustard gas – not to mention sarin nerve poison and cyanide.
Western intelligence sources say Assad has a list of targets ready to go. Analyzing the Syrian war game taking place last week, they calculated that Wednesday and Thursday, July 11 and 12, the Syrian army practiced shooting missiles at strategic centers in Israel, Turkey and Jordan.
But while most Western officials now confirm that Assad has moved his WMD warheads and shells out of storage, they are already divided on what it means. Some US officials are soft-pedaling the menace, offering the theory that the Syrian ruler is only safeguarding his unconventional weapons from falling into rebel – or what he calls “terrorist” – hands.

Other Western intelligence watchers, especially in Britain, believe he is preparing a campaign of ethnic cleansing at centers of revolt and report that chemical weapons have already been transferred to Homs, Latakia and Aleppo for operational use.
That is one game-changing predicament facing the West. It would quickly assume a regional dimension if Turkey, Israel and Jordan were to come under Syrian missile assault.  Air and missile reprisals against Syrian military or regime centers would carry the danger of Hizballah retaliation from Lebanon leading to direct attacks from Iran. Before going down that road, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan – who are not on speaking terms – would certainly confer with US President Barack Obama.

Even then, their consultations would not necessarily lead to action.
For example, three weeks have gone by since Syria shot down a Turkish Air Force reconnaissance jet and yet after, close consultation with Washington, the Erdogan government was persuaded to leave the incident without response. Administration officials explained to the Turks that covert warfare carried a price in failure and casualties.
This US attitude might well embolden the Syrian ruler to risk his arm with limited missile strikes against Turkey and Israel and bank on the Obama administration twisting their leaders’ arms behind their backs to prevent them making any serious response.

NATO launches war games in Mediterranean amid tension with Syria

Posted by truther

NATO’s joint maritime group is flexing its muscle in the eastern Mediterranean Sea by conducting anti-terrorism drills as tensions between NATO member Turkey and its neighbor Syria escalate.

The Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 (SNMG2) is determined “to give a clear message to terrorists in the region that NATO is on duty,” German Rear Admiral Thorsten Kahler told the Turkish daily Hurriyet.

“What we have to make sure is to tell the terrorists to be careful; we are here and providing security for NATO member states,” he said.

The admiral said the group will be heading from Istanbul further into the Mediterranean on July 7. The force currently consists of three frigates from Turkey, Germany and France. The ships are armed with 76-mm and 27-mm guns, Mark 46 anti-submarine torpedoes, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles and carry helicopters. They are manned by 545 sailors in total.

Kahler took over command of the group from his Turkish colleague Rear Admiral Sinan Azmi Tosun on June 15.

The naval drills come as relations between Turkey and its neighbor Syria remain tense following a recent cross border incident. Syrian troops shot down a Turkish jet last month after it violated the country’s airspace.

Damascus says their military acted in self-defense, but offered an apology for the incident and the subsequent death of the two Turkish pilots onboard. Ankara said it was an act of aggression on Syria’s part, claiming that the plane crossed the border by incident and was shot down without warning after flying back into the international airspace.

Turkey called a NATO meeting to discuss the incident. The alliance condemned the incident, but refrained from taking any more serious action against Syria.

Syria and Turkey has increasingly been at odds recently over Ankara’s vocal criticism of the Syrian crackdown on its domestic opposition. Following the downing of the jet, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan pledged support to the Syrian opposition in their bid to topple the government.

Source

Reports of Troop Movements Near Syrian Borders

Posted by truther

Stephen Lendman

After Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced new rules of engagement, Turkey deployed missile batteries, rocket launchers, and anti-aircraft weapons close to Syria’s border.

About 30 military trucks arrived in Iskenderun. From there, they moved toward Syria’s border 30 miles away.

Armored military vehicles also headed for Sanliurfa and Reyhanli in Southern Turkey’s Hatay Province.

On June 29, Reuters headlined “Syrian tanks amass near Turkish border, FSA (Free Syrian Army) general says.”

According to General Mustafa al-Sheikh, Syria deployed around 170 tanks north of Aleppo within 19 miles of Turkey’s border. No independent confirmation was provided.

Speaking to Reuters by phone, al-Sheikh said:

Tanks from the 17th Mechanized Division “are now at the Infantry School. They’re either preparing to move to the border to counter the Turkish deployment or attack the rebellious (Syrian) towns and villages in and around the border zone north of Aleppo.”

On Thursday, Turkey belligerently sent troops and weapons close to Syria’s border. Damascus perhaps reacted defensively.

Expect no imminent attack by either side. Ankara won’t act without orders from Washington. It hasn’t come, but could given escalating violence and rhetoric.

Saber rattling suggests public opinion is being conditioned for war. On June 28, Ankara’s National Security Council (MSK) said:

“Turkey will act with determination and make use of all its rights within international law against this hostile act.”

It referred to Syria downing its aircraft. It provocatively entered its territory low and fast. Damascus was blamed for Ankara’s belligerence. Expect more provocations to follow.

Meanwhile, Mossad-connected DEBKAfile (DF) headlined “Saudi forces mass on Jordanian, Iraqi borders. Turkey, Syria reinforce strength,” saying:

“(H)eavy Saudi troop movements (headed) toward the Jordanian and Iraqi borders (with Syria) overnight and up until Friday morning….after King Abdulah put the Saudi military on high alert for joining an anti-Assad offensive….”

Units include tanks, missiles, special forces and anti-air batteries. Two units were deployed. “One will safeguard Jordan’s King Abdullah against potential Syrian or Iranian reprisals from Syria or Iraq.”

“The second will cut north through Jordan to enter southeastern Syrian, where a security zone will be established around the towns of Deraa, Deir al-Zour and Abu Kemal – all centers of the anti-Assad rebellion.”

DF said Western forces reported Jordan “on war alert.”

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and other regional states know Syria poses no threat. If confirmed, deploying Saudi troops to Syria’s border escalates tensions. It may also reflect belligerent intent.

On June 28, Assad was interviewed on Iran’s IRIB channel 4. He blamed Turkey for inciting violence. He’s hopeful military action won’t follow.

Libya’s model isn’t “a solution to be copied because it took (the country) from one situation into a much worse one. We all now see how the Libyan people are paying the price,” he said.

“The policies of the Turkish officials lead to the killing and bloodshed of the Syrian people,” he added.

He said reports about Iranian and Hezbollah forces aiding Syria are false.

“This is a joke that we hear many times in order to show that a rift has been created within the army and that therefore there is not an army.”

Pointing fingers at Washington, he said:

“The colonialist nature of the West has not changed. From the colonialist standpoint, regional countries should not move according to their national interests and if any country moves against their (Western) values and interests, they say no, like what happened in the case of Iran’s nuclear program.”

“Western states are opposed to Iran’s access to nuclear knowhow; they are more fearful of Iran’s expertise in the nuclear field than what they claim to be a nuclear bomb.”

He also called insurgents “gangs of mercenaries and criminals.” Outside forces are directing them.

For them and their sponsors, “reforms are not important, since the very forces that claimed (a lack of) reforms were the problem. They never benefited from them…all they wanted was (continued) unrest.”

He heavily criticized Arab League states. Their policies harm their own people. They supported NATO’s war on Libya.

“Syria was the only country that opposed the move and therefore we had to pay the price for this policy.”

“Consequently, immediately following our decision,” Western states “acted through the Arab League to put the attack on Syria on their agenda.”

“This has been the Arab League reality in the past, as it is at present.”

He acknowledged that Western-instigated violence ravages Syria. Thousands of ceasefire violations occurred. He has no information about planned military attacks. However, some countries “are making efforts to guide the situation toward” one.

“The West expresses support for the Annan Plan on the one hand, while on the other hand, they seek a plan to overthrow (the government).”

“This is the same double standard (approach) and political hypocrisy.”

“Westerners speak of human rights but give Israel weapons to kill Palestinians. This Western hypocrisy has not changed and will not change.”

He holds “outlaws, saboteurs and armed terrorist gangs” responsible for Syrian violence. He’ll continue confronting it responsibly.

On June 30, Hillary Clinton and Sergei Lavrov will discuss Syria in Geneva. Expect no breakthroughs. Washington wants regime change.

Moscow wants Syrians alone to decide who’ll lead them. Lavrov and other Russian officials have been firm opposing foreign intervention. Expect neither side to yield on Saturday.

DF sounded an ominous warning, saying:

“The failure of (US/Russian) talks “would spell a worsening of the Syrian crisis and precipitate Western-Arab military intervention, which according to military sources in the Gulf is scheduled for launch Saturday, June 30.”

Determining when DF is right or wrong isn’t easy. The above comment sounds like bluster. It’s also about conditioning public opinion for war. Events on the ground bear watching.

Source

Syria May Have Mistaken Turkish Jet for Israeli One

The downing of a Turkish fighter plane by Syria may have been a case of mistaken identity, a Syrian minister says amid rising tensions.

 IsraelNationalNews

By Gabe Kahn

First Publish: 6/27/2012, 10:09 PM

Israeli F-16i (Illustration Only)

flash 90

A Syrian minister on Wednesday was quoted as saying his country’s forces may have mistaken the Turkish plane they shot down for an Israeli one.

Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zoebi told the Turkish news channel A Haber in a telephone interview that Damascus did “not want a crisis between Turkey and Syria.”

Al-Zoebi said Turkish and Israeli fighter jets were mostly US-made, which may have led the Syrian forces to mistake it for an Israeli jet.

However, military observers note that Israel retired its last F-4 Phantom jet – the type of jet shot down by Syria –- in 2004.

Turkey warned Syria on Tuesday to keep its troops away from the countries’ troubled border or risk an armed response, an angry reply to the downing of the Turkish reconnaissance plane last week.

The warning came after Turkey deployed its own forces along its Syrian frontier on Wednesday.

However, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan clearly stated on Wednesday that Ankara had no intention of attacking Syria.

The statement was a clear drawing back from bellicose rhetoric earlier in the week, wherin Erdogan clearly defined Syria as an enemy and warned of consequences over the downing of the Turkish jet.

Analysts say both nations, former allies whose relations have progressively soured as Syrias ongoing ‘Arab Spring’ revolt has drawn out, are seeking ways to reduce potentially dangerous tensions.

UN officials say Syrian president Bashar al-Assad‘s bloody crackdown on the now-16 month popular uprising against his regime has killed some 10,000 people, mostly civilians.

Diplomats, however, say the actual number is likely much higher.

Meanwhile, UN special envoy Kofi Annan has invited the five major powers – Britain, France, China, Russia and the United States – as well as Turkey, the European Union, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar to a round-table discussion on the Syria crisis.

The call came just one day after Assad told his newly sworn on cabinet that Syria was at war with its own citizens.

“When we’re in a state of war, all of our politics has to be concentrated on winning this war,” he said of the popular-uprising-turned-civil-war rocking Damascus.

Obama rebuffs Erdogan’s appeal to lead Turkey in Syria attack

 DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 27, 2012, 9:23 AM (GMT+02:00)

First Syrian opposition leader to visit country

Another urgent bid for the US to lead an allied offensive against Syria’s ruling regime fell on deaf ears in Washington. It came Tuesday, June 26, from Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who is spoiling for action after a Syrian anti-air ambush downed a Turkish reconnaissance jet flying over Latakia last Friday.
In several phone calls to President Barack Obama, Erdogan argued forcefully that the incident provided the perfect opening for a Western-Muslim-Arab offensive, according to DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources. This offensive, said the Turkish leader, could drive into Syria, create no-fly zones, attack regime and military targets and establish safe zones for rebels and refugees. The Turkish army, air force and navy stood ready for immediate action, he said, but the US must take the military lead in this operation – and not just “from behind,” as in Libya.
Obama replied the time had not yet come for direct US military intervention in Syria, and covert operations by American, British, Turkish and French special operations forces should continue inside the country.
Erdogan maintained that cover tactics would neither stop the bloody violence in Syria nor upend the Assad regime. Only the open exercise of American military might and logistic and military capabilities could work and without it Turkey was constrained from going forward on its own.
That disagreement was behind the mixed signals coming from Ankara over the Syrian-shoot-down of the Turkish military plane – insistence on punishing Damascus, on the one hand, and statements that Turkey does not seek war, on the other.
Tuesday, the prime minister stated to parliament: “After this attack, we have entered a new stage,” he said. “The rules of engagement of the Turkish Armed Forces have changed. Any risk posed by Syria on the Turkish border, any military element that could post a threat, will be considered a threat and treated as a military target.”

Erdogan’s statement was couched in the future tense, meaning Syria was off the hook this time.

However, in the interest of muscle-flexing, Turkey’s media reported Wednesday that its military had moved forces including tanks up to the Syria border and placed them on “red alert” with a license to “shoot to kill.”
This train of events shows Prime Minister Erdogan, notwithstanding his close friendship with the US president, in the same bind on Syria as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is on Iran.
Ankara is more than ready to hit back at Syria, just as Jerusalem has been standing prepared for military action against Iran’s nuclear program. But both are held back by President Obama. He hopes that by keeping Iran’s key ally Bashar Assad untouched and diplomacy rolling, an accommodation with Tehran on the nuclear issue is attainable.
This has left Erdogan falling back on the stratagem Netanyahu employs with regard to Iran and HIzballah: tough rhetoric accompanied by inaction.
This did not stop Syrian President Bashar Assad declaring to parliament Tuesday, when he introduced a new cabinet headed by Riyad Hijab: “We are in a state of real war in every respect of the word and when we’re in a state of war, all of our politics must be concentrated on winning this war.”
As he spoke, British special forces (whose presence in Syria was exclusively revealed byDEBKAfile Monday) carried out two tasks: They helped rebel groups, including the Free Syrian Army, to extend their control of territory in the Idlib province on the northern Syrian border with Turkey and Lebanon, and gave them badly-needed hi-tech communications equipment.
They also made it possible for the first Syrian opposition leader, Burham Ghalioun of the Syrian National Council, to set foot in Syria. Under their heavy guard, Ghailioun toured rebel-controlled local villages in Idlib for a few hours before crossing back into Lebanon. Assad’s heavies watched helplessly.
Our military sources note the resemblance of this method of operation to the tactic employed by British special forces in Libya in early 2011, when they set up shop at the rebel center of Benghazi to organize resistance to the Qaddafi regime.

Battles reach Syrian capital: Assad declares ‘Syria at war’

Posted by The Extinction Protocol: 2012 and beyond

June 27, 2012 – MIDDLE EAST - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad declared on Tuesday that his country was at war and ordered his new government to spare no effort to achieve victory, as the worst fighting of the 16-month conflict reached the outskirts of the capital. Video published by activists recorded heavy gunfire and explosions in suburbs of Damascus. A trail of fresh blood on a sidewalk in the suburb of Qudsiya led into a building where one casualty was taken. A naked man writhed in pain, his body pierced by shrapnel. Syria’s state news agency SANA said “armed terrorist groups” had blocked the old road from Damascus to Beirut. The declaration that Syria is at war marks a change of rhetoric from Assad, who had long dismissed the uprising against him as the work of scattered militants funded from abroad. “We live in a real state of war from all angles,” Assad told a cabinet he appointed on Tuesday in a speech broadcast on state television. “When we are in a war, all policies and all sides and all sectors need to be directed at winning this war.” The rambling speech – Assad also commented on subjects as far afield as the benefits of renewable energy – left little room for compromise. He denounced the West, which “takes and never gives, and this has been proven at every stage.” The United Nations accuses Syrian forces of killing more than 10,000 people during the conflict, which began with a popular uprising and has built up into an armed insurgency against four decades of rule by Assad and his father. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a group which compiles reports from rebels, said 115 people were killed across Syria on Tuesday, making it one of the bloodiest days of the conflict. Its toll included 74 civilians it said had been killed, including 28 in Qudsiya. It described heavy fighting near the headquarters of the Republican Guard in Qudsiya, and in other Damascus suburbs of al-Hama and Mashrou’ Dumar, just 9 km from the capital. SANA said dozens of rebels were killed or wounded and others arrested in fighting on the old Beirut road. Government forces seized rocket launchers, sniper rifles, machineguns and a huge amount of ammunition, it said. Samir al-Shami, an activist in Damascus, said tanks and armoured vehicles were out on the streets of the suburbs. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said Syria must beware the wrath of Turkey after Syrian forces shot down a Turkish warplane on Friday at the Mediterranean coast. He ordered his armed forces to react to any threat from Syria near the border. “Our rational response should not be perceived as weakness, our mild manners do not mean we are a tame lamb,” he told a meeting of his parliamentary party. “Everybody should know that Turkey’s wrath is just as strong and devastating as its friendship is valuable.” NATO member states, summoned by Turkey to an urgent meeting in Brussels, condemned Syria over the incident in which two airmen were killed. The Western alliance called the incident “unacceptable” but stopped short of threatening retaliation. -Reuters

NATO hopes Syrian downing of Turkish jet will not escalate

« Breaking News »

DEBKAfile June 26, 2012, 12:59 PM (GMT+02:00)

The NATO meeting Tuesday was requested by Turkey after Syrian air defense batteries shot down a military jet, which Ankara claimed was on an unarmed training mission. Turkey did not ask the alliance for a military response, although its deputy prime minister Bulent Arinc said the shooting down of the plane “would not go unpunished.”

Furious Turkey mobilizes tanks, troops to Syrian border

 

Erdogan slams ‘murderous’ Assad, warns Damascus that rules of engagement have changed following downing of its jet

By ILAN BEN ZION and HILLARY ZAKEN and AP

The Turkish military mobilized large numbers of reinforcements from its eastern provinces to the Syrian border on Tuesday, amid rising tension with Damascus, after the downing by Syria of a Turkish Air Force jet on Friday, Turkish media reported.

Large numbers of Turkish troops — including at least 15 long-range artillery pieces and tanks – moved to the Syrian frontier from the eastern city of Diyarbakir. A video published by the Turkish Cihan News Agency showed Turkish tanks being transported by carrier trucks toward the frontier.

Map

Satellite

The mobilization followed statements by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the Turkish military will respond to any future violation of its border by Syrian military elements.

“As awe-inspiring as Turkey’s friendship is, Turkey’s wrath is equally awe-inspiring,” Erdogan told the Turkish parliament on Tuesday.

“The rules of engagement of the Turkish Armed Forces have changed,” Erdogan said. “Any military element that approaches the Turkish border from Syria posing a security risk and danger will be regarded as a threat and treated as a military target.”

Erdogan closed his remarks with an especially harsh condemnation of Syrian President Bashar Assad: “Turkey and the Turkish people will continue to provide all support until the people of Syria have been saved from this tyrannical, murderous, bloody dictator and his gang.”

Opposition sources in Syria reported at least 86 civilians were killed by Assad troops on Tuesday.

The father of one of the two missing pilots who were shot down in Friday’s incident told Turkish newspaper Hürriyet Daily News that he opposed Turkey going to war over his son.

“It is not appropriate for a country to go to war over a pilot, an airplane or 50 airplanes,” Ali Erton said. He said he was aware of the risks his son took as a military pilot, but added “what matters is that my son serves his country.”

NATO’s North Atlantic Council condemned Tuesday Syria’s downing of the Turkish jet on Friday, but did not recommend military action for the act, as Ankara has requested.

At an emergency meeting, requested by Turkey and chaired by NATO secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the council clearly denounced Syria’s aggression “in the strongest terms,” calling the shooting down of a Turkish jet over the Mediterranean “unacceptable.”

“It is another example of the Syrian disregard for international norms, peace and security, and human life,” said the NATO chief, expressing his solidarity with Turkey, but making no mention of retaliatory action.

During the meeting, Turkey briefed the North Atlantic Council on the downing Friday of its unarmed RF-4E reconnaissance jet over the Mediterranean Sea. It crashed into the sea a mile inside international waters. The two pilots are still missing.

The discussions were held under Article 4 of NATO’s founding treaty, which allows a NATO member, in this case Turkey, to request consultations if its security has been threatened, officials and diplomats said.

Turkey had asked the meeting be held under article 5, which stipulates an attack on any member country is an attack on all of NATO.

Rasmussen said NATO was following the situation closely. “I certainly expect that such an incident will not happen again,” he said.

The secretary-general has also repeatedly said that the alliance would need a clear international mandate, and regional support, before it embarked on a mission in Syria. Last year, NATO launched air attacks on Libyan government targets only after receiving a mandate from the UN Security Council, along with backing from the Arab League.

Syria said the downing was an accident, caused by the “automatic response” of an officer commanding an anti-aircraft position who saw an unidentified jet flying at high speed and low altitude.

But Erdogan said Syria shot down the unarmed plane in international airspace in a “deliberate” and “hostile” act and without warning. He said border violations in the region were not uncommon and that Syrian helicopters violated Turkish airspace five times recently, without Turkish response.

On Monday, Turkey revealed that a search and rescue plane sent to find the downed recon jet had been shot at as well, but did not crash.

The downing of the jet has aggravated tense ties between the two neighbors. Turkey has repeatedly called on Assad to step down as 33,000 Syrians have sought refuge in Turkey, fleeing a government crackdown on a popular uprising.

In Syria’s case, the Arab League hasn’t been able to agree on the need for military intervention. And Russia and China — both veto-wielding members of the Security Council — have consistently shielded Assad’s regime from international sanctions over its violent crackdown on protests. They have called on neighboring countries to refrain from provocative actions that could spark a wider war.

Turkey Warns Syrian Forces Not to Approach Border – NYTimes.com

Posted by Chaos Sweeps Away the World We Know! The Disaster, current events & Catastrophe Blog. Forecasts for 2012 to 2020. Read tomorrows news today! Plus current economic, commodities, stock indices and financial news.

June 26, 2012 - Turkey Warns Syria Over Downed Jet: Buoyed by support from NATO allies, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (pictured above) on Tuesday threatened a Turkish military response to any perceived threat from Syria along the troubled border following the disputed downing of a Turkish warplane.

“Every military element that approaches the Turkish border from Syria in a manner that constitutes a security risk or danger would be considered as a threat and would be treated as a military target,” he said in a speech to lawmakers attended by Arab diplomats.  “From here, we warn the Syrian regime not to make any mistakes, not to test Turkey’s decisiveness and wisdom,” Mr. Erdogan said.

“We will continue to support the struggle of our Syrian brothers at all costs,” the prime minister said, referring to the armed opponents of Mr. Assad who are fighting an increasingly bloody insurgency. “We will continue to act in solidarity with our brothers until the Syrian people are freed of this cruel dictator,” he said.  Follow the link below for the complete story relative to “Crisis in the Middle East.“

The Master of Disaster

Turkey Warns Syrian Forces Not to Approach Border – NYTimes.com.